Commanders at New York Giants 'Thursday Night Football' betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props

Bright lights will shine down on MetLife Stadium on Thursday when the New York Giants host the Washington Commanders in a crucial showdown between NFC East rivals. The Giants enter this latest meeting with their all-too-familiar foes fresh off a workmanlike 19-11 road victory over the beleaguered Philadelphia Eagles. Quarterbacks Jameis Winston and J.J. McCarthy combined under center to lead New York (5-2-1) to its second consecutive win. As for their opponent, this is the most important game of the season for the Commanders. The struggling franchise enters this affair fresh off a 20-13 home loss to the Los Angeles Rams. It might sound cliche, but if there was ever a must-win situation for Washington (2-5-1) this game is clearly it. A defeat would put the Commanders — 0-3 on the road — four games behind the Giants in the division and deliver a serious blow to their realistic chances of reaching the postseason. When it comes to the betting market, you can find the Giants favored anywhere from 1.5 points to 2.5 points, depending on the book. As for the total, the number currently ranges from 40.5 to 41.5 points. With plenty on the line for both teams, let’s take a deep dive into this contest and see where we can find some betting value. Washington Commanders at New York Giants (-2.5, 41.5) The Giants have a pretty impressive record, but whom have they really beaten? I will give New York and their blue-bleeding faithful a checkmark for what I think was a quality road win against the struggling Houston Texans. Other than that, the Giants have victories against Dallas, Tennessee, Arizona and Philadelphia. The combined record of those teams? An ugly 10-25. Not one of those teams is above .500 in the standings. Throw in Houston, and New York has five victories against teams with a combined 13 wins. Honestly, I don’t know what to make of the Commanders. They handed Seattle a 33-31 defeat on Sept. 27 at Northwest Stadium. And they played the Rams and San Francisco 49ers tight in close defeats. Yet, what sticks out are the losses to Indianapolis Colts and that unforgivable tie against the Giants in their previous meeting. To sum it up, Washington is mediocrity defined. When it comes to the respective offenses, they’re very much alike. The Commanders rank 11th in rushing yards (118.3 yards per game), while the Giants check in at 17th (112.1 YPG). As for the aerial attacks, they’re also similar: New York sits 16th in total passing yards (221 YPG), with Washington not far off in 21st (207 YPG). I don’t trust QB Jayden Daniels and his banged-up offense. And I don’t like their chances of getting their first win on the road in a prime-time confrontation against an opponent trending upward. I’m jumping on New York to get the job done against Washington and take a firm grip on the NFC East under first-year head coach John Harbaugh. Bet: Giants ML (-134, FanDuel) Player props WR Malik Nabers – 70+ receiving yards (-104) | 80+ receiving yards (+146) | 90+ receiving yards (+205) | 100+ receiving yards (+300) Nabers had a relatively subdued showing against Philadelphia, finishing with just five receptions (on eight targets) for 43 yards. However, those paltry stats by his standards were nothing compared to what he did prior to that game. In his last four contests before the clash with the Eagles, Nabers went off: 10/25 – at Houston: seven catches for 111 yards 10/18 – vs. New Orleans: 12 catches for 165 yards 10/11 – at Washington: 11 catches for 121 yards 10/04 – vs. Arizona: six catches for 112 yards Now, he faces that same Washington side against which he was targeted a stunning 20 times in their previous meeting. I’m taking a swing on Nabers via this ladder play for receiving yards. McCarthy is going to target Nabers plenty throughout the night, giving me optimism the wideout goes off against the Washington secondary again. LB Arvell Reese to record a sack (+182, FanDuel) The rookie linebacker, selected fifth overall in this year’s NFL draft, has been so good he’s currently the even-money favorite to earn Defensive Rookie of the Year honors at sportsbooks. The Ohio State product leads the Giants defense with 68 total tackles (49 solo and 19 assists), and bas a team-best 4.5 sacks. Reese is coming off his most productive game of his young career, finishing with 12 tackles (10 solo) and a whopping 3.0 sacks in last week’s road win against Philadelphia. Now, Reese and the New York defense face a Washington outfit that has been terrible protecting Daniels of late. The Commanders have allowed 15 sacks in their last four contests. We’re getting close to 2-to-1 odds on Arvell getting to Daniels, so I can’t pass up this angle tied to a red-hot defender facing a subpar Washington offensive line. Anytime TD scorers TE Isaiah Likely (+195, FanDuel) As a Baltimore Ravens fan, it has been bittersweet watching the Likely absolutely light things up for New York. The New York brass knew what it was doing when it signed the 26-year-old to a three-year, $40 million deal in the offseason. His season résumé – 46 receptions for 448 yards and six touchdowns – has put him among the elite at the TE position and I don’t see a decline coming his way. Just how good are those numbers when comparing them with other tight ends? Likely ranks first in touchdowns; second in targets (66); third in receptions; and sixth in receiving yards. Now, he faces a Washington defense allowing just under 70 receiving yards to tight ends (68.8 yards to be exact), which is the fourth-most among NFL defenses. Earlier this season, Likely put together his best showing against Washington. He finished with 11 catches (on 13 targets) for 94 yards and two touchdowns. The Commanders defense couldn’t stop him then, particularly in the red zone. And that same defense is going to have problems again containing him in the rematch. Back Likely to find the end zone for at this nice price. QB J.J. McCarthy (+470, FanDuel) McCarthy averaged almost 5.0 yards per carry in 10 games last season, finding the end zone on four occasions. And despite a limited sample size, the Giants quarterback has gotten busy with his legs on designed plays or when flushed out of the pocket to the tune of nine carries for 51 yards for a 5.7 YPC this campaign. New York running back Cam Skattebo is set to return to the lineup, but I think McCarthy will have a couple of opportunities to get loose on the ground deep in Washington territory and get in the end zone for the first time this season.