Louisville vs. Morehead State preview

Louisville Cardinals (1-0) vs. Morehead State Eagles (1-1) Game Time: Noon Location: KFC Yum Center: Louisville, Ky. Television: ACC Network Extra Announcers: Kent Taylor (play-by-play) and Larry O’Bannon (analyst) Favorite: Louisville by 26.5 Series: Louisville leads, 32-12 Last Meeting: Louisville won 93-45 on Nov. 4, 2024 in Louisville Series History: Projected Starting Lineups: Louisville G Jackson Shelstad (6-1, 185, Sr.) G Adrian Wooley (6-4, 205, Jr.) G Seth Trimble (6-3, 200, 5th) F Alvaro Folgueiras (6-10, 230, Sr.) F Flory Bidunga (6-9, 235, Jr.) Morehead State G Chase Dawson (6-0, 170, Jr.) G Izaiah Day (6-3, 185, Sr.) G Vince Dawson III (6-6, 215, So.) F Clayton Parker (6-8, 230, So.) F Dalman Alexander (6-8, 215, Jr.) Statistics: Morehead State’s Season to Date: Relevant Videos: About Morehead State: Morehead State took a dramatic step forward in year two under head coach Jonathan Maddox, winning 20 games and a share of the Ohio Valley Conference’s regular season title. The Eagles wound up one game shy of the NCAA Tournament, losing in blowout fashion (93-67) to Nolan Smith’s Tennessee State squad in the OVC tournament championship game. MSU returns six players from last year’s squad, including one starter in guard Chase Dawson (8.8 ppg/2.8 apg in 2025-26). Dawson has shot the ball well in each of the team’s first two games this season, but turned it over five times in the season-opening loss to Western Kentucky. “I tell Chase a Kelvin Sampson-ism: ‘There’s three people in our program that cannot have a bad day: the head coach, the point guard, and the best player,’” Mattox said before the season. “I don’t know how this thing will shake out, but right now Chase Dawson is two of the three. I’m the head coach. He’s our point guard, and he’s our best player, so Chase and I, we can’t have bad days. That’s not in terms of making shots. That’s in terms of our leadership, our energy, our intangibles. We cannot have bad days.” Dawson’s primary supporter so far this season has been a bit of a surprise. Clayton Parker played sparingly last season as a freshman but has been stellar through two games in 2026-27. The 6’8 sophomore is shooting 70.6 percent from the field and averaging a team-best 18.0 ppg. He also leads the squad with six steals. Parker has knocked down all four of his three-point attempts and made all eight of his free-throws. If he can keep up those averages for the remainder of the season, he’s my pick for OVC Player of the Year. That’s a joke. Not that he wouldn’t be the OVC Player of the Year if he shoots 100 percent from three and the free-throw line, just that I don’t think those averages are sustainable. Just making sure we’re all on the same page. Kyrell Shaw — a transfer from Hutchinson Community College who played at Maryland Eastern Shore two seasons ago — did next to nothing in the blowout loss to Western Kentucky, but his six threes and lit up D-III Virginia Lynchburg. Fellow low level transfers Justin Payne (Young Harris), Izaiah Day (Taylor) and Kenyata Carbon (Lindsey Wilson) figure to get significant run from Mattox early in the season. “Our No. 1 goal is depth,” Mattox said. “If you look at our stats last year, we played 10 guys in double figure minutes. George Marshall was the only player on our team who played more than 30 minutes per game, and he literally averaged 30.1 minutes per game. When you look at our success, our ability to win late in games, and our ability to win games in late season, I think our depth had a lot to do with that, so that’s one thing we look for when we’re recruiting is quality depth at every position – guys who are interchangeable.” While Morehead’s offense was ahead of its defense last season, Mattox’s ideal scenario is playing slow, grind it out basketball where his team’s defense wins the day. The Eagles were 292nd in the country in pace last season and 335th the year before. Don’t expect them to play any faster in 2026-27. They don’t look to force turnovers, they just want to force opposing offenses to use as much of the shot clock as possible before attempting a low percentage shot, ideally from the outside. That philosophy should work well enough in the OVC, where MSU is the preseason pick to finish third, but against a team like Louisville — which should hopefully be fully motivated after its subpar second half performance on Monday night — it shouldn’t be enough to keep things interesting. Notable: —Louisville has a 270-85 record against non-conference opponents over the last 26 seasons. —Morehead State has never recorded a regular season win over a top 25 opponent. —Louisville is 26-2 all-time in home games against Morehead State. —Louisville’s only loss to the Eagles since 1957 was a 62-61 last-second upset in the first round of the 2011 NCAA Tournament. —Louisville returns just 10.3 percent of its scoring (305 of 2,949 points), 10.5 percent of its rebounding (407 of 1,342 boards), 10.4 percent of its assists (62 of 597) and 11.39 percent of its minutes played (797 of 7,000) from last season’s team. Junior Adrian Wooley is the only scholarship player to return for the Cardinals. —After being named ACC Coach of the Year in 2025, head coach Pat Kelsey joined an elite group of eight active head coaches who have won the Coach of the Year distinction in three or more Division-I conferences. Kelsey was named Big South COY in 2021 and CAA COY in 2024 before being hired at Louisville. —Louisville has a 197-27 record in home regular season non-conference games over the last 25 seasons. The Cardinals are 121-18 at home in regular season non-conference games over the last 16 seasons. —Inside the KFC Yum Center, Louisville has a 117-18 record in non-conference games. —After going 59-0 in November home games from 1991 to 2021, Louisville has lost at least one November home game in four of the last five seasons. —Before 2021, Louisville’s last November home loss had come in 1972. —Louisville is 41-5 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading at halftime. —Louisville is 0-10 under head coach Pat Kelsey when trailing by 5 points or more at halftime. —Louisville is 51-0 under head coach Pat Kelsey when leading with five minutes to play. The Cardinals are also 1-19 under Kelsey when trailing with five minutes to play. —Louisville is 14-0 over the past 11 seasons when limiting opponents to no more than one three-point field goal. —Louisville is 122-0 all-time when scoring 100 or more points in non-overtime games. —Louisville has won 167 consecutive games when holding an opponent under 50 points. Ken Pomeroy Prediction: Louisville 89, Morehead State 59