MLB likely headed toward lockout over CBA, salary cap negotiations

CLEVELAND — The business of baseball is broken, and it's about to be a nightmare for fans of America's national pastime. Major League Baseball is almost assuredly headed for a lockout from the owners on Dec. 1 amid brutally contentious labor negotiations . The current CBA expires that day, and from the sounds of it the two sides are no closer to reaching an agreement by that time than Chandler Simpson is of breaking the single-season home run record. The expected lockout, if it does in fact begin on Dec. 1, would wipe out the winter meetings and cause a number of logistical issues in terms of how teams can operate and communicate with players. Once a lockout or strike commences, it begins a strict no-contact policy because of rules with the league and the Major League Baseball Players Association. It means teams must rely on players to follow their offseason plans without any feedback or back-and-forth for as long as the CBA has expired without a new deal. Free agency will begin five days after the conclusion of the World Series , so the Guardians and other teams will have a few weeks to make transactions before the potential shutdown. But it does put everything in limbo, as some teams might not want as much guaranteed money on the books for 2027 with so much uncertainty. “First off, I’m hopeful that we’ll be playing baseball on schedule next year,” Guardians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said. “If that doesn’t happen, obviously we’ll have to adjust and we’ll be prepared if that’s the case. We’ll continue to operate under the current set of rules as long as they’re in place.”  Why is MLB heading to a lockout? To boil it down, the discrepancy between the highest-spending teams and the lowest-spending teams has never been greater, and it has caused concerns that an even playing field isn't possible under the current system. A salary cap and a salary floor might both be necessary, but the former has long been the players' absolute line in the sand they won't cross, at least in the past. It's clear a change is needed within the MLB salary structure, which might require a cap and a floor. But to get there, major concessions will need to be made by both sides at the negotiating table, and it's unclear when or if that will happen. Some will point to the Milwaukee Brewers -Tampa Bay Rays World Series as an example that the competitive balance is fine, as both are bottom-third payroll teams. But others will point out that, over the last 20 years, the teams with top-eight payrolls have been much, much more successful, with a clear correlation between money spent and playoff wins in general. Between 2016 and 2025, a 10-year span, the World Series included at least one top-eight payroll club in all 10 instances. And most of the time over the period (six out of 10), the World Series featured two top-10 clubs facing each other. The Dodgers had a final 2026 payroll of $412 million, according to FanGraphs , and that doesn't include a mountain of deferred payments. The Miami Marlins are at the other end of the financial spectrum, with a final payroll of $76 million. That is a monumental difference, and when taking into account the deferred money the Dodgers have worked into multiple contracts, it's actually a much bigger gap. The financial system of the game, and how to appease both sides, has put Opening Day 2027 in jeopardy. When was the last MLB lockout or strike? The last work stoppage occurred over the winter between the 2021 and 2022 seasons . It didn't lead to the loss of any regular-season games, though it went just far enough to force some scheduling adjustments. There is a widespread thought among those in the game this lockout could, in fact, end up costing the league some games or, in the worst-case scenario, the entire 2027 season, though that would be an extreme measure. All of that uncertainty leaves many front offices having to institute a number of contingency plans. They also need to be prepared for a communication stoppage with players undergoing offseason programs. Key MLB dates this offseason with lockout possible Five days after the World Series : Free agency begins. Teams can negotiate with their own free agents during that window.  Nov. 9-12 : GM Meetings in Las Vegas  Mid-November : Deadline for players to accept or reject qualifying offer. The exact date depends on the end of the World Series.  Nov. 17-19 : Owners meetings in New York City  Nov. 20 : Non-tender deadline. Teams must place players on the 40-man roster by this date to protect them from the Rule 5 draft.  Dec. 1 : Current CBA expires. This is the big one. The current CBA will expire on Dec. 1, which makes the beginning of December the expected beginning of the lockout. Everything after this date is entirely up in the air. Dec. 7-10 : MLB Winter Meeting in Orlando. These are likely to be cancelled by the lockout.  Dec. 8 : MLB Draft lottery. Again, who knows when this actually happens.  Dec. 9 : Rule 5 Draft. We’ll see!  February : Arbitration figures exchanged. Maybe!  Mid-February : Spring training camps open. It’s unclear if there will be a spring training at all. If the lockout were to extend far enough into the spring, teams would likely only have a few weeks of a truncated camp at their home ballparks before Opening Day. It’ll all be quite different from the normal schedule, if so.  The Beacon Journal sports department can be reached at bjsports@thebeaconjournal.com.