Why Florida, Duke start as men’s college hoops favorites & who can crash their party

The 2026-27 men’s college basketball season has two clear favorites, but the title race is still wide open. Florida entered as the preseason No. 1 in the AP poll, driven to avenge last year’s early tournament exit. Duke is right behind them at No. 2, though analytics models like KenPom and betting sportsbooks actually give the Blue Devils a slight edge. Both squads are loaded with talent and have what it takes to make a deep run in March. Florida’s biggest strength is keeping its core together. Its big men inside are all back, bringing valuable experience and chemistry to the floor. Duke, on the other hand, reloaded fast by grabbing proven talent out of the transfer portal and bringing in another elite freshman class, giving the Blue Devils tons of depth for the long grind of the season. MORE: 8 reasons November’s ‘meaningless’ men’s college hoops games actually shape March Still, neither roster is perfect. Florida has to show it can knock down outside shots consistently, while Duke has to figure out who becomes its go-to scorer after losing its top stars from a year ago. Meanwhile, powerhouses like Illinois, UConn, Houston and Michigan State are right there in the mix, and teams like Arizona and UCLA have already proven they can knock off top-ranked competition. Here is a closer look at why Florida and Duke sit at the top, along with the biggest contenders ready to challenge them. Why Florida & Duke are favorites 1. The polls split between the two Florida and Duke lead the preseason rankings, but the polls cannot agree on which team is better. Florida sits at No. 1 in the AP preseason poll, marking its first time in that position since 2006. The Gators received 47 of 59 first-place votes. Duke collected 10, while Illinois received the remaining two. UConn and Arizona complete the top five. KenPom tells a different story. Duke leads its preseason rankings with a +34.42 efficiency margin. Florida follows at +33.38. Both figures are the highest two preseason ratings in KenPom’s database history. Houston, Illinois, and Arizona round out the top five. The gap between the two programs is small. Florida has the returning production and the defending champion’s confidence. Duke has the deeper roster and the stronger analytical rating. That is why both teams start the season as favorites. The early results have supported their cases, but the real tests are still ahead. Illinois, UConn, Houston and several others will be waiting for an opportunity to take their place. 2. Florida brings back almost everyone Florida’s biggest advantage is continuity. The Gators return 81.8 percent of their scoring from last season. That is the highest figure among high-major programs and the fourth-highest return rate for any No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed since 2002-03. Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and starting center Rueben Chinyelu all returned. Haugh was projected as a lottery pick, while Chinyelu won the national Defensive Player of the Year award. The three big men are part of a rare group. Each averaged at least 10 points, six rebounds and one block per game. Their presence helped Florida record a +14.7 rebounding margin. Coach Todd Golden said last season’s second-round loss to ninth-seeded Iowa played a major role in their decision to return. Florida lost that game 73-72. Now, the same group has another chance to finish the job. 3. Florida’s first game showed frontcourt works Florida opened its title defense with a 77-67 win over No. 14 Miami on Nov. 2. The performance showed why the Gators remain among the leading championship contenders. Haugh, Condon, Chinyelu and Denzel Aberdeen all played important roles in last season’s title run. The four combined for 43 points against Miami. Haugh led the way with 19. Condon and Chinyelu also made life difficult for Miami around the basket. Their size and defensive work helped Florida control the game. The result was an early reminder that the Gators have retained much of the group that won the championship. Their frontcourt remains a major strength. 4. Duke has deepest, most talented roster Duke has built one of the deepest rosters in college basketball. Wisconsin transfer John Blackwell arrives after averaging 19.1 points per game last season. The Blue Devils also added 17-year-old freshman Joaquim Boumtje Boumtje. Returning starters include center Patrick Ngongba II, point guard Caleb Foster and wing Dame Sarr. Five-star freshman Cameron Williams also came off the bench in the season opener. CBS Sports reports Duke can use 10 or 11 players on a regular night. The early results have been dominant. Duke beat Army 84-50, with Boumtje Boumtje recording 15 points, seven rebounds and three blocks. The Blue Devils followed that with a 113-52 win over Coastal Carolina. Ngongba scored a career-high 28 points in the second game. Duke led 54-18 at halftime and shot 61 percent from the field. These wins came against weaker opponents, so tougher games will reveal more about the roster. MORE: No. 2-ranked international NBA prospect commits to Duke for the 2027-28 season 5. Betting market now favors Duke slightly Florida was the consensus betting favorite for several weeks. However, the market has shifted toward Duke. On Nov. 9, FanDuel lists Duke at +480 and Florida at +650. Other sportsbooks have Duke between +440 and +600, while Florida sits between +600 and +650. Model-based estimates also favor the Blue Devils. Dimers gives Duke a 10.9 percent championship probability, compared with 9.1 percent for Florida. UConn follows at 5.1 percent. However, not every source agrees. BetMGM’s market-implied probabilities put both teams at 14.4 percent. The difference remains small, and the title race is open. 6. The cracks in each favorite Florida and Duke have the strongest overall cases, but both have weaknesses that could affect their championship chances. Florida ranked 321st nationally in 3-point shooting last season. The Gators also lost an exhibition game against Baylor. Aberdeen’s eligibility is another concern. He is playing under a temporary injunction against the NCAA. Other players have had similar fifth-year rulings overturned on appeal. There is also a historical warning. The last preseason No. 1 team to win the national championship was North Carolina in 2008-09. Purdue held that position last season but failed to reach the Final Four. Duke has questions of its own. After Cooper Flagg and Cameron Boozer won back-to-back National Player of the Year awards as freshmen, the Blue Devils need another player to take over that role. They also suffered a painful Elite Eight exit last season. Braylon Mullins hit a shot with 0.3 seconds left to send UConn through. The ACC schedule could make things harder. Five conference teams are ranked, giving Duke a tougher path than in recent years. Who can crash the party 1. UCLA UCLA made an early statement by beating Arizona on opening night, led by a 21-point, five-assist performance from point guard Trent Perry. Still, there are reasons to remain cautious. Rebounding issues carried over from last season, and the Bruins have consistently struggled away from Los Angeles in recent years. Beating Arizona was a great start, but they will need to prove they can stay consistent on the road. 2. Arizona Arizona stumbled out of the gate with an opening-night loss to UCLA, despite a massive 38-point, 10-rebound effort from Ivan Kharchenkov. Even so, head coach Tommy Lloyd has a proven track record, having already guided the program back to the Final Four. The main concern going forward is perimeter offense, especially after the Wildcats finished dead last in the Big 12 in 3-point attempts last season. 3. Michigan State Michigan State brings back 65 percent of its minutes from a 27-win team, giving head coach Tom Izzo elite continuity. The offense runs through Jeremy Fears Jr., one of the best floor generals in college basketball after leading the nation in assists last season. An upcoming clash with Duke at the Champions Classic will provide an early reality check on just how far this veteran group can go. 4. Houston Houston remains one of the most reliable programs in the sport, coming off seven straight Sweet 16 trips and five consecutive 30-win seasons. Kelvin Sampson’s defensive blueprint is proven, but heavy roster turnover is the main obstacle. How quickly the new rotation builds chemistry will decide whether they stay in the championship tier. 5. UConn UConn has dominated recent tournaments with three Final Four runs in four years. The Huskies lean on a strong guard tandem in Silas Demary Jr. and Braylon Mullins, bolstered by transfers Na’jai Hines and Nik Khamenia in the frontcourt. A national championship rematch against Michigan will serve as an immediate test of their revamped roster. MORE: 25 best men’s college basketball players of all time 6. Illinois Illinois returns over 65 percent of its scoring from a Final Four squad and looked explosive in a record-setting, 120-45 opening blowout of Fairleigh Dickinson. However, injuries are already taking a toll: David Mirkovic is out indefinitely after an appendectomy and foot surgery, while top sharpshooter Jake Davis is sidelined by shoulder surgery. Subpar defense compared to other title contenders could also catch up to them against early road opponents like Texas Tech and Duke. — Enjoy free coverage of the top news & trending stories with The Big Lead Newsletter —